Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
